Robotaxis Are Coming For Your Commute
A further look into the Autonomous Vehicles section of ARK's Big Ideas 2026
By: Tasha Keeney, CFA, Director of Research, Autonomous Technology & Robotics / Director of Investment Analysis
Fully driverless vehicles are already ferrying paying passengers in the US, China, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—and between commercial operations and active testing, robotaxis are now present in more than 50 cities across the globe.[i] The question is when do they scale? Waymo, which leads in commercial robotaxi miles, operates just 3,000 vehicles.[ii][iii] Even with that small fleet, Waymo is already pressuring Uber’s and Lyft’s market share in San Francisco within its operating zone. As autonomous technology moves from pilots to production volumes, the economics of personal transportation should fundamentally change.
The US: Waymo Leads, Tesla Could Be First To Scale
Waymo leads in commercial driverless mileage, delivering over 500,000 paid rides per week across 11 US cities.[iv] Backed by a $16 billion funding round in February 2026 that values the company at $126 billion, Waymo is targeting 1 million rides per week by year-end and planning expansion into more than 20 additional cities, including its first international launches in London and Tokyo.[v] Waymo has paved the regulatory pathway for autonomy in many US cities and demonstrated that its vehicles are safer than human drivers.[x] Waymo is positioned as a technology supplier, partnering with automakers like Hyundai, Geely, and Toyota for vehicles and fleet operators including Uber, Lyft, Moove, and Avis in addition to its own platform.
Tesla is taking a fundamentally different approach: vision-only autonomy running on consumer hardware without lidar or radar. Its Austin robotaxi pilot launched in June 2025 with safety monitors, and earlier this year, some vehicles began operating fully unsupervised. While Tesla’s robotaxi fleet is roughly 500 vehicles today, its vertically integrated manufacturing could allow it to scale robotaxi operations faster than competitors. For perspective, Tesla produces more vehicles in a single day than Waymo has in its entire fleet.[xi] Tesla’s vertical strategy has cost advantages as well - ARK’s research suggests the Cybercab’s incremental cost-per-mile could be roughly 50% cheaper than Waymo’s 6th-generation robotaxi.[xii] Tesla plans to be in dozens of US cities by year-end.[xiii]
China: Expansive Rollouts Abroad, Fierce Price Competition At Home
Baidu’s Apollo Go has deployed over 1,000 vehicles across 22 cities, logging more than 17 million cumulative rides.[vii] Pony.ai operates nearly 1,200 vehicles across four major Chinese cities and the UAE, and WeRide runs a fleet of over 1,000 vehicles in more than 30 cities across 11 countries.[viii]
Chinese operators face a challenge their US counterparts do not: fierce price competition with local ride-hail. Chinese ride-hail prices are already a fraction of US levels — roughly $0.50 per mile compared to $2.80 in the US.[xiv] As a result, many Chinese players are increasingly looking abroad. Baidu has partnered with UAE-based Autogo to bring Apollo Go to Abu Dhabi, and is testing in Switzerland and the UK.[ix] WeRide has achieved fully driverless commercial operations in Abu Dhabi and is testing with Grab in Singapore. Pony.ai is expanding into Hong Kong and the UAE. The Middle East is increasingly a strategic growth region for Chinese robotaxi operators - governments there are actively courting autonomous vehicle operators, offering favorable regulatory environments and direct investment.
Most Of Today’s Auto Fleet Will Be Rendered Obsolete
Today, a human-driven ride-hail trip in the US costs roughly $2.80 per mile. ARK projects that robotaxis could reach $0.25 per mile at scale — cheaper than owning a car and roughly one-tenth the cost of current ride-hail pricing. At that price point, it’s possible that incremental buyers will instead forgo personal car ownership in urban areas. Running at high utilization rates, only 24 million robotaxis — under 10% of the current US registered vehicle fleet — could cover all US urban miles traveled.
Who Captures The Economics?
ARK’s research suggests that autonomous technology platforms will capture the vast majority of the ~$34 trillion in enterprise value by 2030, as shown below.[xv] Americans spend 96 billion hours per year behind the wheel, time that our analysis of transportation economics literature values at roughly $3 trillion per year in US urban markets alone.
Note: Numbers are rounded. ARK continuously adjusts its forecasts based on latest available information and technological and industry developments. Updates this year include giving the fleet owner category a higher multiple and adjusting the adoption curve for autonomous driving adoption based on updated forecasts from market leaders. “EBIT”: Earnings Before Interest and Tax. “Autonomous Technology Providers”: refers to companies that develop and provide autonomous driving software, such as Waymo. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2026, based on data from AAA 2025, Capital IQ 2025, and New York City Taxi & Limousine Commission 2014.
For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon.
The primary risk to ARK’s forecast is how quickly automakers and partners are able to scale robotaxi fleets and service operations. State level regulation is a gating factor on the speed of rollout today, although it’s possible that there could eventually be Federal guidelines.
The auto industry took a century to put 280 million vehicles on American roads. Robotaxis could make most of them unnecessary within a decade—making our cities safer and bringing affordable ride-hail to everyone.
[i] ARK estimate based on aggregated city counts across major operators: Waymo (11 US cities), Baidu Apollo Go (22 Chinese cities), WeRide (30+ cities across 11 countries), Pony.ai (4 Chinese cities plus UAE), Tesla (2 US cities), Zoox (Las Vegas). Sources: TechCrunch, March 2026; Rhode Island Chronicle, citing fleet and city data for Chinese operators; Reuters factbox on global robotaxi deployments, December 2025.
[ii] TechCrunch, “Waymo’s skyrocketing ridership in one chart,” March 2026.
[iii] NHTSA data via TechCrunch: Waymo reported 3,067 robotaxis equipped with its 5th generation self-driving system as of December 2025.
[iv] TechCrunch, “Waymo’s skyrocketing ridership in one chart,” March 2026; TechCrunch, “Waymo opens robotaxi service in Nashville,” April 2026.
[v] TechCrunch, “Waymo raises $16B to scale robotaxi fleet internationally,” February 2026; Bloomberg, “Waymo Co-CEO Outlines Path to 1 Million Weekly Trips in 2026,” February 2026.
[vi] Basenor, “Tesla Robotaxi Expansion: 60 Model Ys Spotted in Phoenix,” April 2026.
[vii] Rhode Island Chronicle, citing Baidu fleet and ride data.
[viii] WeRide and Pony.ai fleet data from same source as [vii].
[ix] Reuters factbox on global robotaxi deployments, December 2025: Baidu/Autogo Abu Dhabi partnership, Baidu/Swiss Post Switzerland partnership, WeRide/Grab Singapore testing.
[x] Waymo Safety Impact Data Hub. Based on peer-reviewed analysis across 170+ million rider-only miles; see also Kusano et al. (2024), Traffic Injury Prevention, 25(sup1), S66–S77.
[xi] Tesla produced 434,358 vehicles in Q4 2025 (exhibit991), or roughly 6,894 per working day. Waymo’s fleet totals approximately 3,067 vehicles (NHTSA data via TechCrunch).
[xii] ARK Investment Management LLC, Big Ideas 2026, Slides 95–100. Autonomous Vehicles section; Cybercab cost-per-mile comparison on Slide 97.
[xiii] Tesla Q4 2025 Earnings Call, January 2026.
[xiv] ARK Investment Management LLC, Big Ideas 2026, Slide 97. US ride-hail price per mile and China comparison.
[xv] ARK Investment Management LLC, Big Ideas 2026, Slides 99–100. Enterprise value breakdown across technology platforms, automakers, and fleet operators.
Important Information
ARK Investment Management LLC (“ARK”) may hold a financial interest in the companies discussed through various strategies and investment vehicles it manages. Readers are urged to use caution when considering the forecasts and other forward-looking information provided in this article, as it is inherently subjective and reflects ARK’s inherent bias toward positive expected results. There is no guarantee that actual results will align with the forecasts, and they might not be predictive. The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All statements made regarding companies or securities are strictly beliefs and points of view held by ARK and are not endorsements by ARK of any company or security or recommendations by ARK to buy, sell or hold any security. Historical results are not indications of future results.
Certain of the statements contained in this material may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on ARK’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. ARK assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained in this material. Certain information was obtained from sources that ARK believes to be reliable; however, ARK does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from any third party.